1. Two types of "loops"

The system has a structure that creates changes. The basic unit that forms the basis of the system structure is the connection of elements called " loops ". There are many elements in the world, some of which have a connection in which one element influences another.

The connection that the affected element influences another element ... influences the first element, so to speak, "the circle of influence and the connection that is given" is a loop. Movements in the world are very complicated, but there are actually only two types of loops, which are the basic units of the systems structure. In other words, if you fully understand the two types of the basic units, you can jointly solve seemingly complicated situations and problems.

2. "Self-reinforcing loop "

One type of loop is called a " self-reinforcing loop ". This self-reinforcing loop exists when you say "more and more XX" and "more and less XX". It creates movements that increase or decrease in a certain direction, as expressed by the words "more and more" and "more and less".

For example, let's say you deposit 10,000 yen in a bank. If you decide to receive 7% compound interest a year and incorporate it into your principal, at the end of the first year, 7% of 10,000 yen will add 700 yen. Interest in the second year is 7% of 10,700 yen, so it is 749 yen, and the total amount at the end of the second year is 11,449 yen. The interest for the next year will be 801 yen, the total amount will be 12,250 yen, and the total amount at the end of the 10th year will be 19,672 yen, so the deposit will increase at an accelerating rate. It will be added to the existing amount every year, but even if the rate of addition is 7% per year, the account balance will increase, so the absolute amount to be added will increase. Here is an example of a self-reinforcing loop.

In addition, population growth is also a self-reinforcing loop. As the word "mouse calculation" implies, increasing the number of living things is also a self-reinforcing loop in terms of structure.

3. "Balanced loop "

The other loop, called the " balanced loop," is a structure that changes the system in the direction of stability. The thermostat loop is a typical example. Its purpose is to keep the system's state called "room temperature" almost constant at the desired level. This purpose is achieved by using a balanced loop that has elements such as a target value (thermostat setting), an automatic adjustment device (thermostat) that detects deviations from the target value, and a reaction mechanism (air conditioner, electric fan, etc.).

In addition, a balanced loop is a mechanism by which humans and animals sweat to maintain their body temperature and regulate their body temperature.

As I earlier mentioned, system changes are caused by the combination of these two structures. Various actual changes are caused by a complex intertwining of loops, but there are only two types of loops, which are the basic units. Systems thinking is a way of thinking that seeks to understand the structure through this loop, so participants in systems thinking workshops often say that they can simply understand complex things and situations. (We think so too!)

4. Thinking as a loop approaches the "true cause" of recurring phenomena

Let's see the following case. For example, when something "steadily" grows, is there always a self-reinforcing loop?　

There are two reasons for the increase "steadily". One is when something that self-propagates itself is in the structure of a self-reinforcing loop. All living things, from bacteria to humans, including the population growth mentioned earlier, relate to this example. Not only the population, but also the economy and industrial capital (machinery, factories, etc.). The same is true of bank accounts that increase with compound interest, and companies that are in the black can obtain investment funds, so they can further expand their business.

Another reason for "steadily increasing" is when you grow up driven by something else that increases rapidly. For example, food production, resource consumption, pollution emissions, etc. tend to increase "steadily" in the same way as the population and economy, but in this case, it is not because it increases. (The food produced does not produce more food, and pollution does not increase pollution on its own!)

This means that as the population grows and production capital increases, food consumption, resource consumption, pollution, etc., will increase. In other words, food production, material consumption, and energy consumption are increasing at an accelerating rate, not because they are increasing themselves, but because of the need for an accelerating population and economy. Currently, resource consumption and pollutants are increasing to the extent that they exceed the limits of the earth, but this is not a cause that should be regarded as a problem in itself, but the accelerating population and industrial capital that are the driving forces behind it. You can see that growth is the cause.

Here, the environmental aspect is taken as an example, but it is possible to approach the true cause by considering the structure as a connection or loop of elements, not just the phenomenal aspect of "simply increasing".